For the past two weeks I have, like many others across the world, witnessed the Ivory Coast take centre stage as one of the most volatile nations on the planet this year so far.
However this beautiful country, famous for cocoa and great footballers amongst its exports, has been ruled by a despotic, former History Professor Laurent Gbagbo for eleven years, and who later refused to step down after losing an election in November 2010. That refusal to cede power provoked atrocities and a humanitarian crisis on an enormous scale that made Libya's Muammar Gaddafi look like a Saint. His opponent, the internationally recognised winner Alassane Quattara, did not give up the fight. Today, history has been made in this troubled former French colony. The last time I witnessed such an embarrassing moment for a former president was in 2004 when the then Iraq dictator Saddam Hussein was dug up by American forces. The tyrant has succumbed to mounting pressure and is now under house arrest after he apparently holed himself up in his bunker at his Abidjan residence. It was a sad ending for the former leader who only last week appeared like a "normal rules do not apply" guy, being handed only a clean shirt to cover his humiliation on live television. It was encouraging however to see the people of Ivory Coast cheering at Gbagbo and his first lady's arrest. I too cheered with them.
To those not familiar with African politics, Robert Zimbabwe doesn't appear to have a lot in common with Gbagbo. Indeed great is the match of attributes - brutality and bribery - and both portray themselves as the strongest even when the facts are tremendously against them. Both are highly educated and manipulate individuals who sorely think in terms of competitive prestige.
Obviously there is a striking resemblance given Mugabe has been a totalitarian over a span of three decades. He represents one of Africa's greatest problems. Throughout his iron-fist grip to power thousands of his political opponents have mysteriously died or disappeared. More than 20,000 innocent civilians were butchered by his notorious, North Korea-trained Fifth Brigade in Matebeleland during the early 1980's. In 2008 he lost a presidential contest to Movement for Democratic Change rival Morgan Tsvangirai. He cunningly refused to step aside. In the re-run election that followed his supporters, like Gbagbo's, waged a reign of terror against the opposition and innocent civilians. Unlike Mr Quattara in Ivory Coast Mr Tsvangirai feared a bloodbath and boycotted the election. Mugabe went on to contest a one man election, emerging with a 98% majority. To date Mugabe looks increasingly like Zimbabwe's monarch and president for life. He has groomed no successor and no departure date is in sight.
Mugabe has a habit of littering his oration on Britain and America each time Zimbabwean people express resentment. Such is Gbagbo's attitude that he continuously lashed out at France's Nicolas Sarkozy, accusing him of attempting to instigate regime change. Firing such shots has been a tool long used to influence opinion. Ut us therefore logical for Zimbabweans to say we have heard that before, enough is enough.
I think it is time for Mugabe to rethink given the catastrophe that has furnished Africa recently, notably the ousting of Gbagbo, Zen Al-Albidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and the currently sinking ship of Libya's Gaddafi. It is a great moment for him to rethink the nature of his political exit, and how much dignity he wants in that package. He has to think how Zimbaweans will react in both the short and long term to other crises, and whether he should leave government now willingly or wait to be dug up like Gbagbo and Saddam.
Though this poses his greatest challenge to date and the consequences of which are hard to predict, hope to Zimbabweans is that Change is possible and is coming soon.
He should be very weary given that in these crises the international community has been, in some way or another, very destructive and threatening the operating systems upon which these despots depend. This has been very significant and sending a very clear message to dictators that the world will not watch while individuals slaughter their own people in a bid to remain in power. It is a lesson well learnt for those who listen. No one is above the law and at some point we will all be held to account for our actions. This is what we are seeing today in Ivory Coast and Egypt, we have seen it in Iraq and I forecast it to befall Mugabe.
Mugabe has exhausted his possible strategies to desperately cling to power. Like his counterpart in Kenya, Mwai Kibaki, he set up the artificial leg of the Government of National Unity with the MDC. It seems to have increased his political lifeline. He is pinning his hopes on the belief that when the economic crisis in Zimbabwe is resolved the majority will be pleasantly surprised that he is born again, prolonging his days in office. But Mr Mugabe, Zimbabweans are not foolish. That political office is not a retirement home. Even his sharp-horned security forces will one day realise the wishes of the people and refuse to take orders.
For now, the challenge for Mugabe is that the alarm bells have sounded loudly across Africa and the Middle East. It is not too late, but have you learned your lessons Mr President?
If his advisors are watching and following world events, they should be anxious too. If Grace Mugabe was watching Gbagbo's wife being pitifully dragged by security forces on live television, if she truly loves her old man and cares about 'their' young children, I urge her to wake him up in the middle of the night. Alone. And shout through his hearing aid; "So Robert, what would is take for you to walk away?"
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