I am in two minds about the jubilant scenes across Libya recently. The reasons are obvious. It reminds me of that beautiful Friday, the 18th of April 1980, when a youthful Robert Mugabe led Zimbabwe's independence ceremony. Prince Charles was there at Rufaro Stadium that day, Bob Marley blew the cheering crowds away with Redemption Song. In the midst of those celebrations, little did they know what was to hit them tomorrow.
Since then, at this time of year, Zimbabweans either draw or stare at the wrong list. I hear this year it is the City of Kings taking turn to provide the fertile ground for yet another ZANU (PF) conference to take root. They hail it as The People's Congress. The People's Conference. It beggars belief.
Not long ago a brotherly friend Tawanda and I were discussing the leadership subject and a Shona proverb, "Garwe haridyi chebamba, charo chinoza neronga". Of course, it was in the context of our political domain. In the process he brought up a joke about self-control. He reminds me that in our culture, Dzinza ravaShona, our elders are very sensitive to even the slightest puff of wind. Even when alone, being able to suppress is the ultimate desire for such an indelicate disorder. WHen in company, the trick is to be on guard at all times. If one loses control of those muscles it does not only embarrass but the isolation that follows means one is bound to break. In fact, this culture of self-control is meant to unite people and encourage good behaviour. Nevertheless, when people gather, the possibilities are many and varied.
It is a moot point as to whether the outcome is important to the nation. Either way, the relative enlightenment by those Wikileaks revelations on the instability achieved by immature political thinking secured through various ZANU (PF) power structures is vital for our ordinary judgement. The cloud is still hanging following the unique circumstances in which General Solomon Mujuru lost his life in August. As we know, this year was not very fruitful for most African dictators who were either killed or booted out from office by popular uprisings. Wether alarm bells have rang loud enough, this will surely be a cause of concern for the leadership, particularly in light of the recent summary execution of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. In addition, rumour has it that Robert Mugabe does have less than three years to live. Although the leadership issue may not be on their agenda, successive conferences have always led to a widespread expectation that Mugabe will appoint his 'heir' and step down.
This may sound like sweet music to the ears of many, and many will begin to feel more confident about our country's future. However, that is only half the story. Look again, and this time at the needs of a shattered populace. As the ZANU (PF) faithful gather, I beg that they realise the path of stability and nation building need not be fraught by the inexorable pattern of recurring internal dissension, the harrowing experience of growing unrest and the visible presence of a central character that refuses to leave the platform despite woeful performance. Of course it is tragic that Solomon is dead, but who else could stand up to Mugabe and unveil a strong campaign for the leadership subject? It is clear there are not many philosopher, "would-be Kings" in this "Vanguard Party". But surely, the outcome may be unintended or undesirable.
As crafty as he is at turning tombstones in to stepping stones, Mugabe will throw a potentially lethal blow to the likes of Emerson Munangagwa as a statement of intent to emphasize his masculinity - masculinity which open warfare within his party has undermined. In fact, Mugabe's ambition of lifelong presidency will be likely. This matters most to those who have benefited from his leadership. United and patriotism and a "win" at the next election can prolong their grip on both ultimate political and economic power, regardless of the dire consequences for the people.
Another classic example of Robert Mugabe's task of persuasion would be enormously facilitated by his trademark propaganda, so stratified with hate and bitterness towards Britain and America. I presuppose, in order to mobilise enough popular hysteria, Mugabe would remind people of the devastating destruction recently caused by these countries and other powers in Africa. In attempting to reassure his followers, Mugabe will promise them more stakes in the country's wealth and defence. The means to these ends will involve license to ignore the rule of law and to create a very genuine sense of hope and temporary relief to those not familiar with political gimmicks. So, why should the attempt to bring him down, a man who does not undermine their power and give everything they want? That way he would avoid the mistakes of Richard Nixon; antagonising people with power.
In his book Understanding Power, Noam Chomsky shows how people's power can topple a president. These people, who included the extreme neoliberal at the University of Chicago Milton Friedman, demonstrated that state managers are just servants. He reminds us that the Watergate scandal was not the main reason for his impeachment. They knew that Nixon operated a Counter Intelligence program (COINTELPRO) that comprises the "opponents list and political enemies project". Their activities included Gestapo-style assassinations, infiltration of opposition movements, stealing membership lists and using them to threaten people. Most importantly, revelations about his "secret bombing of Cambodia" were a highlight to the much needed truth about US foreign policy towards third world countries.
Can you see the pattern yet with Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe? In his own words, Chomsky's emphasis was to highlight that if servants forget their role and go after people who own their place; they are very quickly put back in to their box.
So after all this fuss it looks as if human beings are fallible as philosopher John Stuart Mill once argued. Even Mark Buchanan in his book The Social Atom: Why the rich get richer, cheaters get caught and your neighbour usually looks like you, writes;
If you still doubt the hard-wired fallibility of human beings, ask yourself the following question. A bat and a ball, together, cost a total of £1.10 and the bat costs £1 more than the ball. How much is the ball?
The incorrect answer is the one that roughly one in every two people cries out; ten pence.
However, right and proper it may be, people need to think about what might happen in the future and how to respond to that change since nobody can predict the best summary of the congress' outcome. The question is whether Zimbabweans have it wrong again this time.
